HAMBURG, April 16 (Reuters) - South
American soybean crop forecasts by the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA)
are too optimistic and do not sufficiently take into account recent poor crop
weather, German oilseeds analyst Oil World said on Tuesday.
Total soybean crops in the main
South American exporters - Brazil, Argentina, Paraguay, Bolivia and Uruguay -
in early 2013 will total 143.60 million tonnes, Oil World estimates, below the
USDA April 10 forecast of 148.75 million tonnes but still up from last year’s
114.95 million.
“In our opinion the USDA estimates
of April 10 are overly optimistic for Brazil, Argentina and Uruguay, not yet
reflecting the crop damage resulting from detrimental weather conditions,” Oil
World said.
Big Argentine and Brazilian harvests
are needed in early 2013 to relieve the tight global soybean market after a
small U.S. crop last year.
Late-season rain followed by dryness
cut yields in Brazil. Drought in parts of north Brazil is the worst in
50 years, Oil World said.
Dryness followed by very heavy rain
has also threatened yields in Argentina. Argentine second-crop soybeans have not developed
well, the firm said.
Oil World retained its forecast of
Brazil's 2013 soybean crop of 81.3 million tonnes, up from 66.3 million in
2012. The USDA on April 10 also retained its forecast of Brazil’s crop at 83.5
million tonnes.
Oil World also kept its forecast for
the Argentine crop at 48.5 million tonnes of soybeans in early 2013, which is
up from the 39.7 million harvested in 2012 but below the 51.50 million forecast
by the USDA.
Oil World expects Uruguay to harvest
2.6 million tonnes in 2013, slightly higher than its 2.45 million tonnes last
year, but it warned the crop could fall as low as 2.5 million.
