Wednesday, April 17, 2013

Trader's highlight


DJI - NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - U.S. stocks jumped more than 1 percent on Tuesday, a day after their worst decline since November, as gold prices rebounded and earnings from Coca-Cola and Johnson & Johnson improved the outlook for first-quarter results.

Inflation data, which reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve will keep its stimulus plan in place, added to bullish sentiment.

The price of gold jumped 1 percent after its record daily drop in dollar terms on Monday. The SPDR Gold Shares ETF , which fell 8.8 percent on record volume Monday, rose 1.1 percent to $132.80. The S&P 500 materials index climbed 1.9 percent, leading the benchmark S&P 500 higher.

The market's advance followed the S&P 500's drop of more than 2 percent drop on Monday, giving the index its worst one-day percentage loss since Nov. 7. The S&P 500 is up 10.4 percent since the start of the year after enjoying a strong first-quarter run, partly as a result of the Fed's continued stimulus efforts.

"Yesterday I think was a bit out of line ... But I think the trend is that the market is consolidating, that we're going to see a little bit of a pullback here over the next month and a half or so, and then we'll get on to greener pastures," said Brian Amidei, managing director at HighTower Advisors in Palm Desert, California.

S&P 500 earnings are now expected to have risen 1.8 percent in the first quarter, based on actual results from 42 companies and estimates for the rest, up from a recent estimate of 1.1 percent growth.

The Dow Jones industrial average jumped 157.58 points, or 1.08 percent, to close at 14,756.78. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index gained 22.21 points, or 1.43 percent, to finish at 1,574.57. The Nasdaq Composite Index  rose 48.14 points, or 1.50 percent, to end at 3,264.63.

On Monday, a drop in the price of gold and other commodities triggered a sharp selloff in stocks. But stocks fell further late in the session after news of two fatal explosions near the finish line of the Boston Marathon.


Oils - NEW YORK, April 16 (Reuters) - Brent crude fell below $100 a barrel for the first time in nine months in heavy trading on Tuesday, extending losses triggered by data from China and the United States that suggested little growth in global oil demand.

Both Brent and U.S. crude pared losses in afternoon trading after each fell more than $2 earlier, suggesting the low prices could be luring back traders, analysts said.

"We are still seeing some weakness in price, in contrast to a number of markets that are snapping back to the upside with more vigor. That’s because we still have a lot of oil," said Tim Evans, an energy futures specialist at Citi Futures Perspectives in New York.

The spread between Brent crude and U.S. crude narrowed by nearly $1 to $10.88 after widening to as much as $11.93 during the trading session, and down from a $23 spread in February.

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A powerful earthquake that struck southeast Iran sending strong tremors across the region, raised concerns it might damage oil production, which put a floor under oil prices, traders said.

Brent crude on Monday dropped about 3 percent in a wider commodities rout after data showed economic growth in China, the world's second-largest oil consumer, had slowed unexpectedly in the first three months of 2013.

Underscoring recent worries, the International Monetary Fund on Tuesday shaved projections for global economic growth for this year and next on the back of spending cuts in the United States and Europe.


CBOT Soybean - Soybean futures on the Chicago Board of Trade closed higher on Tuesday on bargain buying after selling off a day earlier, with firm U.S. cash markets lending additional support as old-crop soybean supplies dwindle.

·         New-crop November soybeans  rallied after setting a     10-month low early in the session.

·         Bull-spreading was an early feature, with the May/November  soybean spread reaching $2.02, May's biggest premium    in a month. However, the inverted May/July spread had   weakened by the close.

·         U.S. equity markets rose one day after the worst decline  since November. Gold made a modest recovery and government data   on inflation and housing signaled an improving economy.
 
·         Worries about bird flu reducing feed demand in China  continue to hang over the market. China's poultry sector has   lost more than $1.6 billion since reports emerged two weeks ago   of a new strain of bird flu, an official at the country's   National Poultry Industry Association said.
 
·         The slow start of exports from South America's new soybean  crop in March and April may compel China to buy more U.S.  soybeans in coming weeks, oilseeds analysts Oil World said.

·         South American soybean crop forecasts by the U.S.   Department of Agriculture are too optimistic and do not  sufficiently take into account recent poor crop weather - Oil World. 


BMD CPO - SINGAPORE, April 16 (Reuters) - Malaysian palm oil futures ended flat on Tuesday, as a recent commodities rout that dented investors' appetite for riskier assets offset earlier gains on bargain hunting.

Gold fell to its lowest in more than two years and Brent crude dropped below $100 per barrel for the first time since July as a shaky global economic outlook drove investors to liquidate assets, extending a sell-off in commodities into a third day.

The weak sentiment spread to the vegetable oil markets, with palm oil falling to a low of 2,281 ringgit per tonne on Monday its weakest since December, and the most active Dalian soybean oil contract tumbling to the lowest since its initiation.

"The market is quiet today due to uncertain factors in the external markets. Prices look to be supported at the 2,250 ringgit level and face resistance at 2,320 ringgit," said a trader with foreign commodities brokerage in Malaysia.

The new benchmark July contract on the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange ended flat at 2,301 ringgit ($757) per tonne.

Total traded volumes stood at 40,241 lots of 25 tonnes each, higher than the average 35,000 lots.

Malaysian palm oil shipments for the first half of the month fell by 4 percent from a month ago, said one cargo surveyor Intertek Testing Services, while another surveyor Societe Generale de Surveillance reported a steeper 7.2 percent drop.

Market participants will be keeping a close watch on the next export data for the April 1 to 20 period to gauge stocks level. A 10 percent increase in shipments in March helped ease inventory level to 2.17 million tonnes, the lowest in seven months.

In other markets, Brent crude sank below $100 a barrel for the first time in nine months on Tuesday in a broad commodities rout after recent weak data from China and the United States spurred worries about oil demand.

In other vegetable oil markets, U.S. soyoil for May delivery gained 0.8 percent in late Asian trade. The most-active September soybean oil contract on the Dalian Commodities Exchange recouped some losses after falling as much as 2.4 percent earlier.


Regional Equities - April 16 (Reuters) - Most of Southeast Asian markets ended firmer on Tuesday, led by Indonesia and Thailand as hopes over the region's economic growth in the face of a slowdown in Chinese economy helped investors to acquire risky assets.

Overall stock indexes in Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, and the Philippines are hovering at their near peak, but investor appetite for the region's stocks still remained robust.

HSBC Global Research in a note said weaker-than-expected Chinese economic data will have lesser impact of the ASEAN economies including Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, the Philippines and Vietnam.

"Here, the main growth driver at the moment is local demand, supported by a strong leverage cycle and, in the cases of Malaysia and Thailand, generous fiscal policy," it said.

"To be sure, exports of raw materials to China play a role for Malaysia and Indonesia, but a marginal slowing of these is likely to be offset by the monetary stimulus recently provided by the Bank of Japan."

Jakarta's Composite index  jumped more than 1 percent to close at its highest since April 3, when the index hit a record closing high, while Malaysia ended up 0.2 percent to a near one-week peak, helped by $81.84 million net foreign inflow.

Thailand gained 0.7 percent to its highest since April 2, while Singapore edged up 0.2 percent.

Economists have argued that markets were ripe for some correction after recent rallies, but have been taken aback by the sudden plunge in commodities, triggered by weak data from China and the United States that have sparked fresh concerns about the strength of economic recovery.

On Monday, the price of gold bullion tumbled another $125 per ounce in its biggest-ever daily loss, and its 9 percent loss was the biggest since 1983. 

Bucking the trend, the Philippines, the region's best performer with 16.8 percent gain for this year, lost 0.8 percent and Vietnam eased 0.4 percent on concerns over macroeconomy, margin calls and losses in global markets.